Hydrologic Modelling of Connectivity Expert Panel Recommendations (2025)

We’re pleased to share a new collection of hydrologic modelling outputs that support the assessment of the Connectivity Expert Panel recommendations for improving river connectivity in the northern Murray–Darling Basin.

We’re pleased to share a new collection of hydrologic modelling outputs that support the assessment of the Connectivity Expert Panel recommendations for improving river connectivity in the northern Murray–Darling Basin.

This work forms part of a broader program investigating how different water management approaches may influence flows, connectivity, and outcomes across the Barwon–Darling River system in dry and non-dry periods. The modelling provides evidence to help understand potential hydrologic, environmental, and economic impacts under a range of scenarios.

The modelling has been completed using the latest approved versions of the models and includes a base case for comparison.

What’s included

This collection is comprised of six hydrologic modelling scenarios, each representing a different approach to achieving the Panel’s objectives.
Each scenario contains the modelling outputs and supporting documentation for that approach.

Explore the modelling scenarios

  1. Scenario 1 – End of System – High Security Accounts
  2. Scenario 2 – End of System – Translucency
  3. Scenario 3 – Extended Resumption of Flow
  4. Scenario 4 – Connectivity EWA – Dam Inflow Trigger
  5. Scenario 5 – Connectivity EWA – Bourke Flow Trigger
  6. Scenario 6 – Combination (Extended Resumption of Flow, End of System – Translucency, and Connectivity EWA – Bourke Flow)

For each scenario, the hydrologic modelling provides information on:

  • changes in flows at gauges relative to the base case
  • changes in water that can be extracted by each licence type relative to the base case

We invite you to contribute to this forum!

We’d love to hear your thoughts on how these resources could support your work or research. Click Reply below to share your feedback, comments, and questions, and help shape better water management strategies for NSW by engaging with this SEED forum and dataset.

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Hydrologic Modelling of Connectivity Expert Panel Recommendations 2025

Overview

Hydrologic modelling assessment of the Connectivity Expert Panel recommendations (Hydrologic Modelling Scenarios) The Connectivity Expert Panel recommended objectives and a proposed approach for improving flows into the Barwon-Darling River in dry and non-dry times. These recommendations have been made independent of government and do not represent government policy. The government made a commitment to complete and release analysis of potential water sharing plan rules that would result in the implementation of the Panel’s recommendations. This is to help understand the potential hydrol...
Hydrologic modelling assessment of the Connectivity Expert Panel recommendations (Hydrologic Modelling Scenarios) The Connectivity Expert Panel recommended objectives and a proposed approach for improving flows into the Barwon-Darling River in dry and non-dry times. These recommendations have been made independent of government and do not represent government policy. The government made a commitment to complete and release analysis of potential water sharing plan rules that would result in the implementation of the Panel’s recommendations. This is to help understand the potential hydrologic, environmental and economic benefits and impacts of any changes. Hydrologic modelling has been completed to inform this assessment. The modelling includes a base case for comparison and six different approaches (scenarios) which aim to achieve the Panel’s objectives. The six scenarios are: - __Scenario 1__ - End of System – High Security Accounts - __Scenario 2__ - End of System – Translucency - __Scenario 3__ - Extended Resumption of Flow - __Scenario 4__ - Connectivity EWA – Dam Inflow Trigger - __Scenario 5__ - Connectivity EWA – Bourke Flow Trigger - __Scenario 6__ - Combination – Extended Resumption of Flow, End of System - Translucency, and Connectivity EWA – Bourke Flow All scenario assessments were completed using the latest approved version of the models. For each scenario, the hydrologic modelling provides information on: - change in flows at gauges relative to base case - change in water that can be extracted by each licence type relative to base case ----------------------------------- Note: See _Analysis of the Connectivity Expert Panel Recommendations: Hydrologic modelling assessment.pdf_ (attached) for more details. Note: If you would like to ask a question, make any suggestions, or tell us how you are using this dataset, please visit the [NSW Water Hub which has an online forum](https://water-hub.seed.nsw.gov.au/thread/search) you can join.

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